Wednesday, March 17, 2010
Deem These Data From Intrade --Obamacare Takes a Tumble
I wrote yesterday for Politico that the "Slaughter Solution" was too clever by half--exactly the sort of trickery that the voters hate. (See "Cornhusker Kickback," etc.) And so, I wrote, the Obamacare bill, which had been gaining momentum in recent weeks, might have taken "a fatal turn."
And now, on Intrade, the wisdom-of-crowds betting outfit, I see that the "value" of Obamacare has fallen from 70 to 55. That's a 15-point drop in a single day, or 21 percent.
That's a big drop. Yes, getting Dennis Kucinich's vote was a big deal, but when I read that there are 36 "no" or "likely no" votes among Democrats, and 50 or so undecideds, I start to wonder if maybe the price for Obamacare is still not too high. (The "magic number for the Democrats is 37--that is, the number of votes that they can afford to lose.)
Posted by James P. Pinkerton at 7:24 PM